Overcoming Writer’s Block by Bryan Hutchinson

Overcoming Writer’s Block by Bryan Hutchinson Overcoming Writer’s Block: An Interview with Bryan Hutchinson We often like to say that writing the book is the hard part. Sometimes, though, it can get really hard. Writer’s block is an ever-present subject in writing forums and communities, and most writers are faced with it at some point in their careers.There are no simple tricks and techniques for overcoming writer’s block that work for everyone, contrarily to what the myriad of blog posts on this subject would lead you to believe. It is, however, almost always linked to self-doubt (or to an underlying block), and that is something everyone (not just writers) can work on.For this, we decided to cut through all the noise out there around this subject and bring a true expert to the Reedsy blog: Bryan Hutchinson is the author of Writer’s Doubt and the founder of Positive Writer, one of the most acclaimed blogs about writing out there. What’s good about him is that he is, indeed, positive. And self-doubt has little grip on a positive person. Self-doubt affects everyone in every aspect of their lives. I’ve heard from people in a lot of different fields who have read my book â€Å"Writer’s Doubt† and found it extremely helpful and they’re surprised because it is supposed to be for writers. The reality is we all deal with doubt and I just happened to write about it in the context of writing, but anyone reading the book can apply it to the context of their lives and their work.Follow Bryan Hutchinson and Reedsy on Twitter: @Adderworld and @ReedsyHQHave you ever been faced with writer's block? How do you usually deal with it (over here at Reedsy, we just go for a walk)? Leave us your experiences and tips, or any question for Bryan, in the comments below!

Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction

Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction Over the entire 4.6 billion year history of the Earth, there have been five major mass extinction events. These catastrophic events completely wiped out large percentages of all of the life around at the time of the mass extinction event. These mass extinction events shaped how the living things that did survive evolve and new species appear. Some scientists also believe we are currently in the middle of the sixth mass extinction event that could last for a million years or more. The Fourth Major Extinction The fourth major mass extinction event happened around 200 million years ago at the end of the Triassic Period of the Mesozoic Era to usher in the Jurassic Period. This mass extinction event was actually a combination of smaller mass extinction periods that happened over the final 18 million years or so of the Triassic Period. Over the course of this extinction event, it is estimated more than half of the known living species at the time completely died out. This allowed dinosaurs to thrive and take over some of the niches left open due to the extinction of species that had previously held those types of roles in the ecosystem. What Ended the Triassic Period? There are several different hypotheses on what caused this particular mass extinction at the end of the Triassic Period. Since the third major mass extinction actually is thought to have occurred in several small waves of extinctions, it is entirely possible that all of these hypotheses, along with others that may not be as popular or thought of as of yet, could have caused the overall mass extinction event. There is evidence for all of the causes proposed. Volcanic Activity:Â  One possible explanation for this catastrophic mass extinction event is unusually high levels of volcanic activity. It is known that large numbers of flood basalts around the Central America region occurred around the time of the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction event. These enormous volcano eruptions are thought to have expelled huge amounts of greenhouse gases like sulfur dioxide or carbon dioxide that would quickly and devastatingly increase the global climate. Other scientists believe it would have aerosols expelled from these volcanic eruptions that would actually do the opposite of the greenhouse gases and end up cooling the climate significantly. Climate Change:Â  Other scientists believe it was more of a gradual climate change issue that spanned the majority of the 18 million year time span attributed to the end of the Triassic mass extinction. This would have led to changing sea levels and even possibly a change in the acidity within the oceans that would have affected species living there. Meteor Impact: A less likely cause of the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction event may be attributed to asteroid or meteor impact, much like what is thought to have caused the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction (also known as the K-T Mass Extinction) when the dinosaurs all went extinct. However, this is not a very likely reason for the third mass extinction event because there has been no crater found that would indicate it could create devastation of this magnitude. There was a meteor strike that dates to about this time period, but it was rather small and is not thought to have been able to cause a mass extinction event that is thought to have wiped out more than half of all living species on both land and in the oceans. However, the asteroid impact may have very well caused a local mass extinction that is now attributed to the overall major mass extinction that ended the Triassic Period and ushered in the beginning of the Jurassic Period.

Quality Function Deployment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Quality Function Deployment - Essay Example QFD also differs in the fact that it concentrates more on adding new features and components according to customer needs and expectations rather then simply focusing on eliminating features or components not required by the customer. The QFD institute describes QFD as a comprehensive quality design method that: The following essay will start with a brief look on the evolution of QFD and its expansion to the rest of the world. This will be followed by a discussion on the framework of house of quality (HoQ) as well as the elements that forms part of the HoQ. The next sections will then cover the advantages and the benefits offered by the method which will be followed by a discussion on the drawbacks of the method. The roots of QFD can be traced back to United States in 1940s with the emergence of 'value engineering'. Due to limited reources at General Moters (GM), alternative designs were considered and it often resulted in better product and lower cost. This led the management at GM to investigate and develop effective ways to improve value and resulted in launching of the program 'value analysis' (VA) in 1947 with tremendous success. In 1954, Department of Defense's bureau of Ships embraced a similar approach in it procurement activities and named its programme 'value engeenering'. However, Jiang, Shiu and Tu mention that even though the initial concept of quality originated in the United States, early industrial applications predominantly took place at Japanese companies (30). After the World War II, Japan's industry was devastated and Japanese begun rebuilding the industry with the help of Americans. Quality was given a significant importance, leading to the establishment of statistical quality control in Japanese manufacturing industry. The quality management activities at the time were concerned with quality of the product during the manufacturing process or after. During this time, Professors Shigeru Mizuno and Yoji Akao focused on developing a quality assurance method that would integrate customer satisfaction into the product even before the product was manufactured. Based on this concept, Mizuno and Akao subsequently published their first book on the topic in 1978 (Jiang, Shiu and Tu 33). In 1966, Mr Kiyotaka Oshiumi of Bridgestone Tire in Japan was presented with a process assurance items table. This table had a fishbone diagram showing the links from the substitute quality characteristics, which were converted from true qualities (customer needs), to the process factors. A further field of 'Design Viewpoints' was later added to this table. (Akao and Mazur 21) Although the idea was presented to various companies for trails, it did not generate much public interest at the time. Akao and Mazur mention that the approach at the time was still inadequate in terms of setting the design quality (21). However, this changed with the creation of quality chart by the Kobe Shipyards of Mitsubishi Heavy Industry in 1972. Their table indicated the true quality (customer needs) in terms of function and then showed the relationship between these

Hospitality and tourism marketing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3750 words

Hospitality and tourism marketing - Essay Example Tourism product portfolio has following dynamics. There are quality issues, relative uniqueness, themes and potential target audience. The product gets support from these elements. In order to comprehend this relatively new field of Hospitality and Tourism Marketing, one needs to refer to rudimentary aspects of Marketing (Dolnicar, 2008).Rationale for the above mentioned product portfolio has buying decision behind it. It deals with assessment on target customers in context of their aspirations (stimuli). It includes income, safety, visa, psychological goals and offer that are floated in core and supplementary offers. Availability of information about the offer is second step where by customer tends to check alternatives. Here information must be apt and attractive. This is because of the fact that stimuli might have been catered by the core and supplementary products but necessary conveyance of information is also important. Decision once taken will lead to post purchase analysis wh ich will be very important so far as suggestion/ feedback is concerned. Satisfaction leads to regular customer-ship. A study on rating by Chinese tourists stated that Shopping, Entertainment and Participatory activities bagged highest rating whereas tourism experts marked Dining/Eating out, Participatory activities and entertainments as the most favorite activities. In Amsterdam Market, the customers will be gauged on certain determinants.

Scientific Process behind Games of Chance Essay Example for Free

Scientific Process behind Games of Chance Essay The prospect of winning the price money is one of the most influential if not primary reasons why people engage in casino games. The degrees may vary, but there will always be a certain desire to win. Even the player who once failed continues to hope that luck will turn to his or her side in the following round. For some, winning gives a certain sense of achievement. There are those who are simply thrilled by the momentary joy it brings. Still, some simply want to gain money for profit. The prospect of winning usually conceals the truth behind the likelihood of success. Luck is one thing, but the possibility of winning in casino games primarily lies on its mathematics. Scientific Process behind Games of Chance Generally, people obtain a certain amount of pleasure whenever they engage in a form of recreational activity such as playing games. In any case, such recreational activity provides a chance to have fun, a test of fate, escape and diversion, and intellectual stimulus. However, the kinds of games played with the desire to win the money are the ones that are even more challenging, thrilling, and pleasurable. The desire to succeed in a game of chance or wits is supported by the desire to collect the monetary reward. In addition, although most people are motivated to engage in gambling not solely because of the most coveted prize of money but for the entertainment that games of chance can offer, money nonetheless remains to be an essential if not dominant factor. Money is a means to keep track of the score. Likewise, it is the prize for a game well played and a price to pay for a bad game (Vancura, Cornelius, Eadington, 2000). By definition, gambling is a gaming behavior that involves running the risk of valuables or money on the result of a certain game, event, or contest for that matter (Author, year). Arguably, the result of a gambling activity is completely or to some extent dependent on chance. It remains to be a controversial topic to date. There are those who take pleasure in the likelihood of winning. There are those who simply appreciate having a good time in playing the games. Still, there are those people who are not interested in any form of gambling activity for they believe that the appeal of the monetary prize will only trigger the players to develop an addiction to the game. In essence, the casino gaming business is simple. It thrives on its games due to the laws of probability. Effective marketing strategies and sound management practices may help bolster the bottom line, but in the end, the house usually wins the game. This is due to the mathematical edge the casinos have over its players. This, of course, is no secret. People have been gambling and trying to figure out the house edge for the longest time. Nonetheless, even the average gambler is at least indistinctly aware that casinos make money because of the mathematical edge provided by the games. The details, though, are a mystery to many who fail to grasp the subtleties, and sometimes the obvious, about the mathematics behind the games (Hannum, 2005). All things considered, commercial gaming, an industry that is built upon statistics and probability is a huge and thriving business enterprise Commercial Gaming and the Math If a player would want to advance his or her winning chances, he or she must initially try to rise above his or her hesitations to the degree that is possible. Afterwards, the player must then consider the consequences of his or her possible strategy. The manner of management is certainly dependent upon the real basis of the uncertainty. For instance, if a players would want to come to a decision whether he or she would engage in a game of chance, then such player must initially consider the odds to see whether or not they are appealing in contrast to the amount to be gambled (Bewersdorff Kramer, 2004). Critics of the gaming business have long blamed it that in order to sound more politically correct, they refer to their venture as a gaming rather than a gambling enterprise. Representatives of the gaming business did not coin the term, though. It has been in existence for several years already. Perhaps, the term more correctly describes the business for the reason that casino operators usually do not engage into gambling activities. Rather, they depend on the mathematics of the games to assure positive cash flow. The House Advantage The money generated from a gambling game derives from the expected value, or expectation, of the wager. This value represents the monetary value that a bettor can expect to be losing of winning sooner or later if the wager were to be made a large number of times. In principle, the expected value can be found by multiplying each possible outcome or payoff by its probability of occurring, and then summing these products. In double-zero roulette, for example, a $5 even-money bet on the color red has expected value equal to (+5)(18/38) + (-5)(20/38) = -0. 263 (Hannum, 2005). It is important to note that in a double-zero roulette, there are 18 black, 18 red, in addition to the 0 and 00 green numbers. Generally, more than $. 25 for every $5 bet on red will be lost by a player, generating a 5. 3% house edge on such bet (Hannum, 2005). For some games, the relevant probabilities for the outcomes of a wager may be difficult to derive, and it is necessary to use more sophisticated mathematics or computer simulations to estimate the game’s statistical advantage. Notwithstanding of the method applied in computation, the house advantage can be regarded as the cost to a player for engaging in the game. Everything else equal including bets for every hour as well as average bet size, a player who bets in a game with a four percent house advantage is likely to lose his or her money twice as quickly as the other player who is betting in a game with a two percent house edge (Hannum, 2005). The Winning Advantage There is wide variation in house advantages for wagers found in casino games, depending on the particular bet, the rules in effect, and, in some cases, the level of skill of the player. There are those who believe that certain casino games such as slots machines, the big wheel of fortune, keno, baccarat, crap, and roulette are games of sheer chance. They argue that in these games, no amount of strategy or skill can influence the eventual outcome of the game. They further argue that with a house advantage of less than 1% and 1. 2% taking into consideration a conservative play, the games of craps and baccarat provide the best chance of winning (Hannum, 2005). For slots, on the other hand, it would cost a player five up to ten percent on the average. For double-zero roulette, it would register at 5. 3%. In keno and the big wheel of fortune, however, the average house advantages will be about thirty and twenty percent, correspondingly (Hannum, 2005). Games wherein a certain degree of skill can influence the player’s expectation are the popular poker-based games, video poker, and blackjack. Optimal strategy will produce a house advantage between a three up to five percent, in as far as the popular poker-based games are concerned (Hannum, 2005). Statistical advantage in video poker differs from every machine. Nonetheless, in general, video poker can be quite player-friendly. Taking into consideration an expert strategy, it is not unusual to produce a house advantage of fewer than three percent for this game. There are those which fall below one percent, and occasionally a player can find a video poker game with a return greater than 100 percent. The house edge for the blackjack game differs with the number of decks used as well as with every rule applied. With typical rules, taking into consideration a player employing a basic strategy in a typical six-deck game, he or she will only play against a house advantage of 0. 5 percent. Nonetheless, the average player of a blackjack game will ultimately give about two percent advantage to the casino whenever he or she decides to deviate from such strategy (Hannum, 2005). Flaws, Myths, Faults, and Misconceptions Most casino wagers have a negative expectation. However, there are certain exceptions. A few professionals can make a living at race or sports betting or at a card room poker wherein the opposition is other players. Blackjack can be played with a positive expectation using card counting. A few video poker machines can be played with a player advantage. Moreover, the odds waged in craps have a house edge of zero even though such wage is not possible without making one more negative expectation wager. Occasionally, a casino will likewise give a promotion that offers an edge to the player. The aforementioned are the common mistakes caused by overzealous casino personnel who did not bother to check the math, and in such cases the promotions are usually terminated quickly when it becomes apparent the players have the mathematical edge. Odds Explained The term odds can mean several things. However, it is commonly used to refer to the chances of winning. For example, the odds are a million to one of hitting the jackpot. When used in this sense, many people confuse odds with probability. When a card is selected at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards, there is a probability of 1 in 4 that the card will come out as a spade. The odds that the card will not turn out to be a spade are three to one. It is not uncommon for people to mistakenly interpret 3 to 1 odds as meaning the event will occur on average once in three tries. In the game of lottery, the odds of winning the jackpot can be derived from a mathematical calculation. In the Lotto 6/49 game, for instance, 6 digits are drawn from a pool of digits ranging from 1 up to 49. Here, the amount of possible combinations is only less than fourteen million (Smitheringale, 2003). Hence, the odds to win the jackpot on one ticket will be 1 in fourteen million. Selling more tickets will not influence the odds since it remains constant. Selling more tickets will only effect in an increase in the jackpot price as well as on the potential number of winners (Smitheringale, 2003). Each Video Lottery Terminals, otherwise known as VLTs has their own game program and processor board which works separately from all of the other Video Lottery Terminals. A random number generator is built-in every VLT. It is that which controls losses and wins. In this case, a winning outcome cannot be predicted. Moreover, there is completely no pattern or order to the emergence of the results. For slot machines and VLTs, the payback works on percentages. More wagers eventually lead to more money lost in the game (Smitheringale, 2003). On the other hand, in a roulette game, there are thirty-seven numbered slots where the roulette ball could drop on any single turn of the wheel (Smitheringale, 2003). In one bet, the real odds of selecting the right number are thirty-six to one. Conversely, the payoffs for selecting such number are thirty-five to one. The distinction between the payoff odds and the real odds generate a 2. 7 percent house advantage. This indicates that a player will eventually lose 2. 7 percent on the average of every bet he or she makes (Smitheringale, 2003). In case of the blackjack game, the house advantage can fall somewhere from one up to twenty percent (Smitheringale, 2003). It all depends on the player’s skill as well as on the set of rules applied. Those who play following a perfect strategy can lower the house advantage to one percent. Nonetheless, those players remain at a drawback and will ultimately lose money. Playing a perfect strategy means playing a in a prearranged fashion, considering the up-card of the dealer and the players’ hand. No other than the card counters which are rare, can expect to obtain quite a slim advantage or to totally even out the odds in the game. In another use of the term, the payoff for a winning wager is at times reported in terms of odds – a winning bettor who gets odds of 3 to 1 is paid three times as much as he or she bets (Hannum, 2005). The real odds correspond to the payoff that would produce a better fair. In a double-zero roulette for instance, a bet on one number has probability of 1 in 30. This means that for a player to ultimately breakeven, he or she would have to be paid 37 to 1 (Hannum, 2005). The Working behind the Games In terms of gambling, the concept of randomness denotes that every possibility on a device is consistently possible on every trial of the machine (Smitheringale, 2003). It is incorporated into gambling games to guarantee that the players cannot exactly calculate what the subsequent outcome would be like. Examples of gambling devices which generate numbers or events in random order are slot machines, VLTs, dice, cards, and roulette wheels. Generally, a random number generator is incorporated in nearly all forms of gambling games. Every attempt on a random number generator is not just random. Rather, it is likewise independent of all the others. In this sense, preceding outcomes have no bearing upon the present or upcoming results. House advantage is a term used to refer to the mathematical advantage that the gambling operator has to guarantee that eventually, the house will generate money (Smitheringale, 2003). It is usually in a form of a percentage. It can go from a comparatively small value to a fairly huge percentage. For instance, the house advantage for blackjack players can be at approximately 1% while it can register to approximately 50% for those who play the lotteries (Smitheringale, 2003). The value corresponds to the amount in average that a player will suffer the loss of for each and every bet he or she makes. It is otherwise known as the percentage, theoretical win percentage, or house edge. There are those who use the term house advantage to refer to the odds of the game and try to avoid games with bad odds. Confusion regarding independent events and the so-called law of averages are at the core of many fallacies about gambling. Arguably, the most common of these is the gamblers’ fallacy. It is manifested in different forms. Some gamblers will bring into play this fallacy following a series of losses and chase, as they say those losses with larger bets, believing that their so-called luck must now change direction (Bewersdorff Kramer, 2004). The casino industry was build upon probability laws as well as on proper game analysis that can guarantee positive casino revenues on the long term. For some, the requisite fluctuations can be considered as bad luck or otherwise depending on the direction to where it leans toward. Nonetheless, in reality, as far as the gaming business is concerned, winning does not depend on pure luck, it lies rather in the math. References Bewersdorff, J. , Kramer, D. (2004). Luck, logic, and White Lies: The Mathematics of Games. Massachusetts: A K Peters, Ltd. Hannum, R. (2005). Risky Business: The Use and Misuse of Statistics in Casino Gaming. Chance, 18, 41-47. Smitheringale, B. (2003). FastFacts on Gambling. Addictions Foundation of Manitoba, 5-50. Vancura, O. , Cornelius, J. , Eadington, W. (2000). Finding the Edge: Mathematical Analysis of Casino Games. Reno: University of Nevada Press.

The Hamlet Paradigm Essay -- English Literature Essays

The Hamlet Paradigm Central Question of the Play How does an individual react when he develops an obsession with destroying the powerful force ruling his country, yet risks experiencing psychological estrangement, occurring at multiple levels within himself, if he attempts to destroy that force? This is the central question that Shakespeare explores in his play Hamlet, which is a character study of an individual harboring just such an obsession, entailing just such a risk. Introduction That Hamlet is obsessed with destroying the powerful force ruling his country (Claudius) is plainly evident in the play. But while this obsession initiates Hamlet’s behavior, it is his additional realization, that he risks psychological estrangement occurring on multiple levels as a result of trying to carry out his obsession, that shapes his behavior into the form that the audience sees, one that seems bizarre and incomprehensible. The Nature of Hamlet’s Obsession The reasons for Hamlet’s obsession with exacting revenge against Claudius are fairly straightforward. The ghost of Hamlet Sr. informed Hamlet that Claudius killed Hamlet Sr. and thus usurped him from his throne. In doing so, he emasculated Hamlet by robbing him of his central role model of masculinity, namely his father. He also committed the moral and political sin of regicide, and the familial sin of killing his brother and subsequently sleeping with his wife. Claudius also deprived Hamlet of his rightful kingship, since Hamlet was second in line after Hamlet Sr. In addition, Hamlet now knows that his love of his mother is corrupted since she is affectionate towards his emasculating enemy. The Nature of Hamlet’s Risk of Psychological Estrangement In attempting to kill Claudius, Hamlet risks enduring estrangement occurring within his self at multiple psychological levels. There are primarily five such levels of estrangement: 1. Religious estrangement: Hamlet feels self-actualized from following basic religious principles of living. This is shown by his lamentation that the everlasting had fixed his cannon against self-slaughter, thus preventing Hamlet from committing suicide at a time when he felt like doing so. If Hamlet were to kill Claudius, he would be violating a central religious principle against murdering another human being. This would make him feel guilt at having violat... ...esire to extract revenge against Claudius, is also actively looking for ways to relieve himself of the psychological pain that harboring his obsession causes him, even if seeking psychological refuge in such ways might mean giving up on the endeavor altogether. 11) That Hamlet’s awareness, of the high risk of personal estrangement that he faces from his endeavor to extract revenge, is for him a source of great stress. 12) That the ignorance of his people of Claudius’ crime and their discomfort at knowing it may cause them to commit the morally double-standard act of rejecting Hamlet and supporting Claudius. 13) That despite his fear of rejection by his countrymen, Hamlet still has the capacity to take out on them the anger he feels against them for potentially or actually committing this double-standard act. Virtually every scene or element in the play relates to these themes. In other words, the purpose of Hamlet is simply to delineate and comment upon an individual’s psychological response to feeling the rare type of obsession that Hamlet feels in the play.. The above themes are phenomena associated with that response, or with Shakespeare’s model of that response.

Aj Davis Department Store Part B

AJ Davis Department Store Part B AJ Davis Department Store Introduction The following information will show whether or not the manager’s speculations are correct. He wants to know the following information: Is the average mean greater than $45,000? Does the true population proportion of customers who live in an urban area exceed 45%? Is the average number of years lived in the current home less than 8 years? Is the credit balance for suburban customers more than $3200? Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for situations A-D are calculated. A.THE AVERAGE (MEAN) ANNUAL INCOME WAS LESS THAN $45,000. Solution: Step 1: Null Hypothesis: The average (mean) annual income was equal to $45,000. H_0: ? =45,0000 Step2: Alternate Hypothesis: The average (mean) annual was less than $50,000. H_a: ? 45 , a z-test for the mean will be used to test the given hypothesis. As for the alternative hypothesis, which is Ha:? 0. 45 and the given test is a one-tailed (upper-tailed) z-test. Step 4 : Critical Value and Rejection Region: The critical value for significance level is ? =0. 05. The upper tail z-test is 1. 45. Rejection Region: Reject H_0,if z-statistic>1. 645. Step 5: Assumptions: The sample size in this experiment is n 0. 4 95% Lower Sample X N Sample p Bound Z-Value P-Value 1 21 50 0. 420000 0. 305190 0. 29 0. 386 Step 7: Interpretation: According to the calculations, the p-value is 0. 386. This value is larger than the significance level of 0. 05. Therefore, we will not reject the null hypothesis. There is no sufficient evidence to support the claim that the true population proportion of customers who live in an urban area is greater than 40%.Based on the results provided by MINITAB below, the lower 95% confidence limit is 0. 28. Since 0. 42 is greater than the 95% lower confidence limit, hence, we cannot support the claim that the true population proportion of customers who live in an urban area is greater than 45%. Confidence Interval: Test and CI for One Pro portion Sample X N Sample p 95% CI 1 21 50 0. 420000 (0. 283195, 0. 556805) ? C. THE AVERAGE (MEAN) NUMBER OF YEARS LIVED IN THE CURRENT HOME IS LESS THAN 8 YEARS. Solution: Step 1: Null Hypothesis: The average (mean) number of years lived in the current home is equal to 8 years.H_0: ? =8 Step 2: Alternate Hypothesis: The average (mean) number of years lived in the current home is less than 8 years. H_a: ? 50 requires that the z-test for mean be used to test the given hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is Ha:? 3200 Step 3: Test Statistic: z= Following the provided information, the Significance Level is ? =0. 05. The alternative hypothesis is Ha: ? >3200; therefore, the given test is a one-tailed (upper-tailed) z-test. Step 4: Critical Value and Rejection Region: The critical value for significance level ? =0. 5 for an upper-tailed z-test is given as 1. 645. Rejection Region: Reject H_0,if z-statistic>1. 645. Step 5: Assumptions: The sample size in this speculation is greater tha n 30, therefore, The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) will apply, and no assumptions need to be made. Step 6: Calculation of test statistic: One-Sample Z: Credit Balance ($) Test of mu = 3200 vs > 3200 The assumed standard deviation = 742. 365 95% Lower Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean Bound Z P Credit Balance ($) 15 4675 742 192 4360 1. 96 0. 025 Step 7: Interpretation:According to the above results from MINITAB, the p-value of 0. 038 is smaller than the significance level of 0. 05; consequently, the null hypothesis will be rejected. There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that the average (mean) credit balance for suburban customers is more than $3200. Based on the results from MINITAB, which are provided below, the significance level is 0. 05; therefore, there is sufficient evidence to support the claim that the average (mean) credit balance for suburban customers is more than $3200.MINITAB reveals that the 95% lower confidence limit is 4469; therefore, 3200 is smaller than the 95% lower confidence limit, which means that the claim can be supported regarding the average (mean) credit balance for suburban customers is more than $3200. Confidence Interval One-Sample Z The assumed standard deviation = 742. 365 N Mean SE Mean 95% CI 50 4675 105 (4469, 4881) Conclusion After performing hypothesis testing and confidence intervals on each speculation, we can conclude that from the sample of 50 customers from AJ DAVIS department store, the average (mean) annual income is less than $50,000.We can also conclude that the number of customers that live in urban areas are less than or equal to 40%. The average number of years their customers have lived in their current home is more than 13. Also, the average credit balance for suburban customers is more than $4300. The manager was correct about the speculations of the average income being less than $50,000 and a customers’ credit balance being more than $4,300. For AJ Davis department store to continue a great r elationship with their customers, it wise and imperative that they continue to perform analyses of this magnitude.

Pest Essay

Hong Kong is politically stable, there would rarely be any political factors that will interrupt and slow down the company’s growth. Hong Kong doesn’t have goods and services tax so this allows McDonalds to have lower expenses and they can maximize their profit. The international operations of Mcdonald’s are highly influenced by the individual state policies enforced by each government. Economic- The economic collapse has caused Hong Kong to enter the recession stage in the economic cycle. Therefore the demands for low price food increase tremendously and this benefited McDonald, since the foods are cheap and the quality is guaranteed. Inflation has caused McDonald to raise meal price, in long term, as inflation raised to a point that it will be too expensive and McDonald will lose its large customer base. But still Mcdonald’s is still a market leader and it got a very (high)large target market. low cost more incomes. The rate at which the economy of that particular state grows determines the purchasing power of the consumers in that country. Social- McDonald is a fast food restaurant company so they can perform their services in a short period of time and this fits with the fast paced lifestyle in Hong Kong. In the past few years Hong Kong people are more aware of healthy eating, so they stay away from high calories and high cholesterol food. McDonald tries to prevent the loss of customer by adding healthier food in the menu such as salads sweet corn. Working within many social groups. Increase employments. Technology- Hong Kong has a well developed transportation system, especially the airport that has airlines that connects to different part of the world. Their food supplies can be delivered from all around the world in a short period. Computers and smart cashiers are used by the employees so they would not get confused and they are provided with customized database management system. They also have Wifi provide in every McDonalds also, its very convenient for people that is using laptop. Quality packing and standards. Advanced technology development. Local manufacture using foreign supplies. | | Strength| – Strong brand name, image and reputation- Clean environment and play areas for children (bday party provided)- 24 hours- Customer intimacy- Product innovation- Supplier integration| Weaknesses| – High staff turnover (food going to waste)- Unhealthy food image- Low depth and width of product- Unbalanced meals (mostly meat, amount of fruit or vegetable not much)| Opportunities| – Expand into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities- Growth of the fast-food industry- Worldwide deregulation- Low cost menu that will attract the customers- Freebies and discounts- Can open up online service for customers – Growing health trend (fresh burger or healthy dessert)| Threats| – Increase competition from local fast food outlets- Mcdonald’s competitors threatened market share of the company both internationally and domestically- Health issues – Health professionals and consumer activities accuse Mcdonald’s of contributing to the country’s health issue of high cholesterol, heart attacks, diabetes and obesity- Lack of choices (customers will change their taste anyday)- Global recession and fluctuat ing foreign currencies- Fast-food chain industry is expected to struggle to meet the expectations of the customers towards health and environmental issues|

Quotes From A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens

Quotes From 'A Tale of Two Cities' by Charles Dickens A Tale of Two Cities is a dense classic, often studied in classrooms. Charles Dickens published the work late in his career as a popular novelist in Victorian England. The backdrop of A Tale of Two Cities is the French Revolution; and a whole myriad of colorful characters are in attendance (as is usual for the works of Charles Dickens). Here are a few quotes from the literary master. Quotes from Book 1 It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other wayin short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 1Jerry, say that my answer was, RECALLED TO LIFE.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 2Eighteen years! Gracious Creator of day! To be buried alive for eighteen years!- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 3She had laid her head upon my shoulder, that night when I was summoned outshe had a fea r of my going, though I had noneand when I was brought to the North Tower they found these upon my sleeve. You will leave me them? They can never help me to escape in the body, though they may in the spirit. Those words I said. I remember them very well. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 6 If, when I tell you, dearest dear, that your agony is over, and that I have come here to take you from it, and that we go to England to be at peace and at rest, I cause you to think of your useful life laid waste, and of our native France so wicked to you, weep for it, weep for it! And if, when I shall tell you of my name, and of my father who is living, and of my mother who is dead, you learn that I have to kneel to my honoured father, and implore his pardon for never having for his sake striven all day and lain awake and wept all night, because the love of my poor mother hid his torture from me, weep for it, weep for it! Weep for her, then, and for me! Good gentlemen, thank God! I feel his sacred tears upon my face, and his sobs strike against my heart. O, see! Thank God for us, thank God! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 6All through the cold and restless interval, until, dawn, they once more whispered in the ears of Mr. Jarvis Lorrysitting opposite the bur ied man who had been dug out, and wondering what subtle powers were forever lost to him, and what were capable of restorationthe old inquiry: I hope you care to be recalled to life?- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 1, Chapter 6 Quotes from Book 2 But indeed, at that time, putting to death was a recipe much in vogue with all trades and professions, and not least of all with Tellsons. Death is Natures remedy for all things, and why not Legislations? Accordingly, the forger was put to Death; the utterer of a bad note was put to Death; the unlawful opener of a letter was put to Death; the purloiner of forty shillings and sixpence was put to death; the holder of a horse at Tellsons door, who made off with it, was put to Death; the coiner of a bad schilling was put to Death; the sounders of three-fourths of the notes in the whole gamut of Crime, were put to Death. Not that it did the least good in the way of preventionit might almost have been worth remarking that the fact was exactly the reversebut, it cleared off (as to this world) the trouble of each particular case, and left nothing else connected with it to be looked after.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 1I wont be gone again, in this manner. I am as r ickety as a hackney-coach, Im as sleepy as laudanum, my lines is strained to that degree that I shouldnt know, if it wasnt for the pain in em, which was me and which was somebody else, yet Im none the better for it in pocket; and its my suspicion that youve been at it from morning to night to prevent me from being better for it in the pocket, and I wont put up with it, Aggerawayter, and what do you say now! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 1 Waste forces within him, and a desert all around, this man stood still on his way across a silent terrace, and saw for a moment, lying in the wilderness before him, a mirage of honorable ambition, self-denial, and perseverance. In the fair city of this vision, there were airy galleries from which the loves and graces looked upon him, gardens in which the fruits of life hung ripening, waters of Hope that sparkled in his sight. A moment, and it was gone. Climbing to a high chamber in a well of houses, he threw himself down in his clothes on a neglected bed, and its pillow was wet with wasted tears.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 5I have sometimes sat alone here of an evening, listening, until I have made the echoes out to be the echoes of all the footsteps that are coming by and by into our lives.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 6There is a great crowd coming one day into our lives, if that be so.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 6 What a night it has been! Almost a night, Jerry, to bring the dead out of their graves.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 6It is extraordinary to me that you people cannot take care of yourselves and your children. One or the other of you is forever in the way.- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 7I know it all, I know it all. Be a brave man, my Gaspard! It is better for the poor plaything to die so, than to live. It has died in a moment without pain. Could it have lived an hour as happily? - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 7Repression is the only lasting philosophy. The dark deference of fear and slavery, my friend, will keep the dogs obedient to the whip, as long as this roof shuts out the sky, - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 9Good-night! I look to the pleasure of seeing you again in the morning. Good repose! Light Monsieur my nephew to his chamber there! And burn Monsieur my nephew in his bed , if you will. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 9 There is no harm at all done. I have not proposed to the young lady, and, between ourselves, I am by no means certain, on reflection, that I ever should have committed myself to that extent. Mr. Lorry, you cannot control the mincing vanities and giddiness of empty-headed girls; you must not expect to do it, or you will always be disappointed. Now, pray say no more about it. I tell you, I regret it on account of others, but I am satisfied on my own account. And I am really very much obliged to you for allowing me to sound you, and for giving me your advice; you know the young lady better than I do; you were right, it never would have done. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 12The time will come, the time will not be long in coming, when new ties will be formed about youties that will bind you yet more tenderly and strongly to the home you so adornthe dearest ties that will ever grace and gladden you. O Miss Manette, when the little picture of a happy fathers face looks up in yours, when you see your own bright beauty springing up anew at your feet, think now and then that there is a man who would give his life, to keep a life you love beside you! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 13 But, there were other echoes, from a distance, that rumbled menacingly in the corner all through this space of time. And it was now, about little Lucies sixth birthday, that they began to have an awful sound, as of a great storm in France with a dreadful sea rising. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 21Seven prisoners released, seven gory heads on pikes, the keys of the accursed fortress of the eight strong towers, some discovered letters and other memorials of prisoners of old time, long dead of broken heartssuch, and such-like, the loudly echoing footsteps of Saint Antoine escort through Paris streets in mid-July, one thousand seven hundred and eighty-nine. Now, Heaven defeat the fancy of Lucie Darnay, and keep these feet far out of her life! For, they are headlong, mad, and dangerous; and in the years so long after the breaking of the cask at Defarges wine-shop door, they are not easily purified when once stained red. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 21 From such household occupations as their bare poverty yielded, from their children, from their aged and their sick crouching on the bare ground famished and naked, they ran out with streaming hair, urging one another, and themselves, to madness with the wildest cries and actions. Villain Foulon taken, my sister! Old Foulon taken, my mother! Miscreant Foulon taken, my daughter! Then, a score of others ran into the midst of these, beating their breasts, tearing their hair, and screaming, Foulon alive! Foulon who told the starving people they might eat grass! Foulon who told my old father that he might eat grass, when I had no bread to give him! Foulon who told my baby it might suck grass, when these breasts were dry with want! O mother of God, this Foulon! O Heaven, our suffering! Hear me, my dead baby and my withered father: I swear on my knees, on these stones, to avenge you on Foulon! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 22For scores of years gone by, Monseigneur had squeezed and wrung it, and had seldom graced it with his presence except for the pleasures of the chasenow, found in hunting the people; now, found in hunting the beasts, for whose preservation Monseigneur made edifying spaces of barbarous and barren wilderness. No. The change consisted in the appearance of strange faces of low caste, rather than in the disappearance of the high-caste, chiseled, and otherwise beatified and beatifying features of Monseigneur. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 23 For the love of Heaven, of justice, of generosity, of the honour of your noble name, I supplicate you, Monsieur heretofore the Marquis, to succour and release me. My fault is that I have been true to you. Oh, Monsieur heretofore the Marquis, I pray you be true to me! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 24The Loadstone Rock was drawing him, and he must sail on, until he struck. He knew of no rock; he saw hardly any danger. The intention with which he had done what he had done, even although he had left it incomplete, presented it before him in an aspect that would be gratefully acknowledged in France on his presenting himself to assert it. Then, that glorious vision of doing good, which is so often the sanguine mirage of so many good minds, arose before him, and he even saw himself in the illusion with some influence to guide this raging Revolution that was running so fearfully wild. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 2, Chapter 24 Quotes From Book 3 Five paces by four and a half, five paces by four and a half, five paces by four and a half. He made shoes, he made shoes, he made shoes. The ghosts that vanished when the wicket closed. There was one among them, the appearance of a lady dressed in black, who was leaning in the embrasure of a window, and she had a light shining upon her golden hair, and she looked like...Let us ride on again, for Gods sake, through the illuminated villages with the people all awake! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 1The wives and mothers we have been used to see since we were as little as this child, and much less, have not been greatly considered? We have known their husbands and fathers laid in prison and kept from them, often enough? All our lives, we have seen our sister-women suffer, in themselves and in their children, poverty, nakedness, hunger, thirst, sickness, misery, oppression and neglect of all kinds? - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 3It wa s the popular theme for jests; it was the best cure for headache, it infallibly prevented the hair from turning grey, it imparted a particular delicacy to the complexion, it was the National Razor which shaved close: who kissed La Guillotine, looked through the little window and sneezed into the sack. It was the sign of the regeneration of the human race. It superseded the Cross. Models of it were worn on breasts from which the Cross was discarded, and it was bowed down to and believed in where the Cross was denied. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 4 I call myself Samson of the firewood guillotine. See here again! Loo, loo, loo; Loo, loo, loo! And off her head comes! Now, a child. Tickle, tickle; Pickle, pickle! And off its head comes! All the family! - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 5I am the resurrection and the life, saith the Lord: he that believeth in me, though he were dead, yet shall he live: and whosoever liveth and believeth in me, shall never die. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 9If it had pleased God to put it in the hard heart of either of the brothers, in all these frightful years, to grant me any tidings of my dearest wifeso much as to let me know by a word whether alive or deadmight have thought that He had not quite abandoned them. But, now I believe that the mark of the red cross is fatal to them, and that they have no part in His mercies. And them and their descendants, to the last of their race, I, Alexandre Manette, unhappy prisoner, do this last night of the ye ar 1767, in my unbearable agony, denounce to the times when all these things shall be answered for. I denounce them to Heaven and to earth. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 10 Then tell the Wind and Fire where to stop, but dont tell me. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 12If you remember the words that passed between us, long ago, you will readily comprehend this when you see it. You do remember them, I know. It is not in your nature to forget them. I am thankful that the time has come, when I can prove them. That I do so is no subject for regret or grief. If it had been otherwise, I never should have used the longer opportunity. If it had been otherwise - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 13It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known. - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, Book 3, Chapter 15

6 Signs You Didnt Get the Job

6 Signs You Didnt Get the Job Your resume and cover letter were pitch perfect. Your interview outfit was flattering and made you feel like a million bucks. You hit it off with your interviewer, sailed through all the tough questions, and had a great handshake on your way out the door. Now you’re sitting at home sweating bullets wondering why you haven’t gotten the call. Even if you’re the perfect candidate and everything goes this smoothly and more, it’s possible that- for reasons that might not have anything to do with you- you still won’t get the job.Save yourself a lot of agonizing disappointment by keeping an eye out for these six signs instead:1. You were downgradedYou were supposed to meet with three members of the team, but when you showed up, only one measly HR rep was there to meet you. This could mean they’ve all but finished up their search and your interview is now a mere formality. It’s not a good sign either way.2. Your time was shortchangedYour inter view is over minutes after it begun. You were just easing up and getting comfortable explaining your many virtues! And all of a sudden- â€Å"That’s all, thank you.† This is pretty much a death knell, unless the building happens to be on fire.3. Your interviewer is distractedYou’re rocking it, but your interviewer doesn’t seem to care- or even notice. Maybe they’re checking their phone, or looking out the window, checking their email thinking you won’t notice. If they’re not just as invested in impressing you as you are in impressing them, this will probably end up like a bad first date; you’ll never hear from them again.4. It’s clear you’re unqualifiedYour interviewer keeps asking about a skill you’ve admitted you don’t have. They keep emphasizing just how important that skill is to the team. Translation: â€Å"Don’t call us, we’ll call you.† At least you’ll know why you didn’t get the job.5.  There’s no mention of a follow-up planYou had a great time and really felt like you nailed it- or not!- but your interviewer just says â€Å"Thank you† or â€Å"We’ll be in touch.† If no next steps are mentioned, and no timeline is given, that’s a pretty good sign you’ve reached the end of the line with this one.6. You’re given sage adviceIf your interviewer gives you advice on job searching, they’re probably not expecting to give you the job. They might just be trying to help you out and soften the blow. The good news about this particular brand of rejection is that you get a free coaching session. Take it and move on.

Gender Stereotyping of American First Ladies Term Paper

Gender Stereotyping of American First Ladies - Term Paper Example They summarized previous studies on the way that the media reported Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton and Barbara Bush and agreed with the observation that journalists tend to use one of four different â€Å"frames† for viewing the first ladies, namely as an escort for her husband, as a style-setter for fashionable society, in a â€Å"noblesse oblige† role doing charity works or taking a political role as a policy advisor. Earlier studies had shown that the more politically involved the presidential wife was, the less positive the new reporting was. Houchin and Winfield then analyzed media coverage of the wives of the presidential president and vice presidential candidates in the 2000 presidential election, hoping to establish what frame analyzed  used and how the First and Second Ladies’ roles are evolving. The data used in this study included personality profiles, new features, interviews, opinion columns, and campaign updates. It is clear that the wives were involved in the whole electioneering process. At first, the escort role was stressed, and then over time, an element of sacrifice was introduced, since some of these wives had given up high powered careers to support their electioneering husbands. By the end of the election campaign, the press had developed a new frame: â€Å"The Anti-Hillary.† What this study shows is that Hillary Clinton, a strong, capable politician in her own right, is seen as a negative asset to a president. One cannot help wondering what the situation would be if the roles were reversed, for example, if a woman were running for office and her husband came under press scrutiny. This is not a scenario which occurs very often, and when one looks at international examples, such as Margaret Thatcher in Great Britain, and Indira Gandhi in India, one finds that the press is not interested in their husbands as much because they are either dead or seen as irrelevant.